영문 초록 원문 (PubMed Abstract) 펼쳐보기 ↓
BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) affects an estimated 254 million people globally. Historically, WHO and professional society guidelines have recommended treatment for individuals at high risk of disease progression, including those with hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA concentrations >20 000 IU/mL. Whether individuals at lower risk, including those with HBV DNA <20 000 IU/mL and normal alanine aminotransferase concentrations, benefit from treatment remains uncertain. To inform 2024 WHO guidelines and the potential expansion of treatment threshold recommendations, we conducted two linked systematic reviews and meta-analyses; this analysis examines the incidence of clinical outcomes in untreated adults with non-cirrhotic CHB stratified by baseline HBV DNA and ALT concentrations. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies, randomised controlled trials, and non-randomised studies of interventions, published in any language, from Jan 1, 2000, to Feb 6, 2023. We also reviewed the reference lists of included studies and systematic reviews and consulted networks of experts to identify other data sources. Included studies followed up adults (≥18 years) with non-cirrhotic CHB who had no history of antiviral therapy at enrolment, had baseline HBV DNA quantification and ALT measurement, had a follow-up period of at least 48 weeks, and assessed one or more of six key clinical outcomes (hepatocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis, liver-related mortality, all-cause mortality, liver decompensation, and indication for liver transplantation) or six additional outcomes (advanced liver fibrosis, progression of liver fibrosis, becoming eligible for antiviral treatment, hepatitis flare, and HBsAg and HBeAg seroclearance). Outcomes were required to be stratified by HBV DNA concentrations (<200 IU/mL, <2000 IU/mL, 2000-19 999 IU/mL, 20 000-199 999 IU/mL, and ≥200 000 IU/mL) or ALT concentrations (less than the upper limit of normal [ULN], 1·0-1·9 × ULN, and ≥2·0 × ULN). We excluded studies that focused solely on individuals who were pregnant; were co-i